
Every decision has two legs:
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Analyze the data. Build the model, argue with yourself in comments, ask for feedback, produce a beautiful memo that you read the next day, etc.
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Decide. Hit “buy/sell/approve/ship”.
Analysis without a decision is accrual accounting for courage: impressive, but nobody got paid.
A decision without analysis is amateur work. Instead do this:
- Write the decision rule before the debate.
- Weight opinions by believability (track record + logic).
- Decide by the deadline, not by consensus.
- Log the decision, expected results, and reversal triggers.
- Afterward, compare outcomes to expectations, where pain + reflection = progress.
Do this repeatedly and you build a decision-making machine that improves itself.